The “frozen conflict” between Armenia and Azerbaijan has turned very hot.
Bear in mind that oil-rich Azerbaijan — with 7 billion barrels of proven reserves and large amounts of natural gas — has vulnerable pipelines that run as close as 10 miles from the Armenian border.
Moreover, Washington is utterly distracted by the upcoming election. Turkey and Russia are on opposite sides (as they are in Syria and Libya as well). And the European Union is absorbed by the Brexit endgame.
The chances of a peaceful settlement seem bleak. Any just solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute will entail painful compromises on both sides. At the moment, such compromises seem far less likely than a small war with potentially large consequences.